First this is great because JEEZ the timing could not have been better. It also has a lot of the hallmarks you might expect from a piece written at the absolute peak of the market top: this time is so different being the most glaring.

But I also think your thesis is mostly correct. And I think it’s probably a 50–50 shot that the market will be again at all time highs within 9 months.

I’ve been talking about the decline of the US dollar as the likely outcome and the real cause of the next big financial crisis.

And bankrupt airlines (when aren’t they bankrupt?) aside, most of the companies in the stock market are not significantly impaired. There’s no real great deleveraging happening. There’s not credit risk just yet.

In a month or a two, I think things will mostly return to normal. The most bearish folks will go back to their caves. I say that as someone who always holds long dated OTM puts, because hey, sometimes markets tumble.

Also, that’s not to say that there aren’t huge problems with this economy, or this corporate bailout regime running our country, or the quicksand our monetary policy is built on. But I think those things aren’t what’s underlying this crisis, and if anything, this crisis has created another layer of paper over those real problems.